Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-27 0.208081 0.249385 0.298634 0.362240 0.443016 0.543261 6.787920e-01
2025-08-03 0.167967 0.221257 0.292736 0.397833 0.552281 0.777335 1.142642e+00
2025-08-10 0.133214 0.189679 0.273301 0.411068 0.642576 1.036580 1.808717e+00
2025-08-17 0.104462 0.158789 0.246360 0.405969 0.709625 1.310685 2.742979e+00
2025-08-24 0.087474 0.141497 0.236024 0.426658 0.839488 1.804056 4.698334e+00
2025-08-31 0.073962 0.126498 0.225563 0.445341 0.985832 2.485494 8.315558e+00
2025-09-07 0.063480 0.114235 0.216813 0.466120 1.162017 3.476167 1.560737e+01
2025-09-14 0.054964 0.103566 0.208250 0.485603 1.362592 4.885866 3.100632e+01
2025-09-21 0.046649 0.091253 0.192509 0.481121 1.499478 6.378848 5.832477e+01
2025-09-28 0.036721 0.073287 0.158688 0.412109 1.363569 6.423449 7.459482e+01
2025-10-05 0.032770 0.067716 0.153488 0.426949 1.577346 9.053170 1.764005e+02
2025-10-12 0.030205 0.064740 0.154108 0.462243 1.937016 14.166704 5.908332e+02
2025-10-19 0.027647 0.061450 0.153714 0.498676 2.396344 23.338271 3.115999e+03
2025-10-26 0.025060 0.057506 0.150356 0.524089 2.871010 37.739755 2.926719e+04
2025-11-02 0.022183 0.052160 0.141140 0.520795 3.178449 54.695619 6.032463e+05
2025-11-09 0.019367 0.046394 0.128904 0.497357 3.312595 72.073824 2.054892e+08
2025-11-16 0.017628 0.043266 0.124484 0.509972 3.834585 118.881411 NaN
2025-11-23 0.016103 0.040426 0.120204 0.521644 4.427363 203.242020 NaN
2025-11-30 0.014822 0.038036 0.116823 0.537153 5.172681 376.021715 NaN
2025-12-07 0.013687 0.035856 0.113566 0.552196 6.036989 742.875489 NaN
2025-12-14 0.012410 0.032987 0.106782 0.540558 6.496101 1247.600592 NaN
2025-12-21 0.010583 0.028085 0.090692 0.457034 5.433668 989.507317 NaN
2025-12-28 0.009900 0.026745 0.088728 0.470310 6.317867 2206.278055 NaN